Smart Gambling Tips
The first smart gambling tip you should learn is a NFL game starting line. It starts with the Home team at -3 visitor team +3. Once the two teams are plugged into the spread system machine it will then create the line based on team averages vs each other. Example this week the New England Patriots are on the road favored by 3 points. This means they are 6 points favorites to win the game. The odds makers won’t put it at -6 because of their mathematical system. The odds makers use a system to create the closest to 50% odds which creates people to bet both sides. This only works on road games, if a home team is favored by 9 then its 9, not 12. A sports book wants people to bet each side equally, this is why lines will move up or down. So if you see a line open up at -6 and go up to -7 then you know that majority of people are betting the -6.
NFL Point Spreads
Point spreads are not used often in smart gambling. Yes, sometimes it is nice to get a team getting 10 points, seems easy right? Point spreads are simply a huge math problem averaging the two teams stats to equal a number of betters on each side, Making your bet a coin flip. So why gamble on a 50% chance taking the spread? Moneyline bets are an example of smart gambling, it may seem like you’re not making as much money. But last time I checked it’s always better to make money then lose it. Smart gambling will make you become a regular face at your sports book while you cash your tickets and build up your bankroll. Bankroll management is also very important when practicing smart gambling, knowing when to bet and when to lay off. I will discuss bankroll management another day.
There is such thing as a good parlay bet, it will involve MONEYLINE BETS!! I do believe if you keep your parlay bets to 2-3 teams you can still create winning tickets. I still believe straight bets is smart gambling for the long term gamblers. 4+ team parlays are not a good bet, sure it pays good but losing will become a regular thing if this is the only way you bet the NFL. Win a few a year is ok, but for an every week gambler it’s horrible way to invest your money. Odds are 10-1 for a 4 team ATS (against the spread) parlay, so in 17 weeks of NFL odds are that you will win 1-2 each year to break even. Now start making 2-3 team parlays using a Moneyline system will start generating profit and increasing you betting amount as your bankroll increases. This is a much summarized version people have written books about this stuff, and every week I will keep teaching you more.
Games of the Week
A hard week for smart gambling in the NFL, with many spreads larger then 3 which creates some difficult smart gambling. I personally don’t like betting NFL road teams, but this week, Patriots seem to be my favorite game of the week. Pittsburgh is the worst 5-2 team, their 5 wins are over team with a combined record of 8-24 beating the Seahawks, Colts, Jaguars, Cardinals and Titans all teams projected to miss the playoffs and finish under .500. Look for the Patriots to use their two Tight Ends sets to wear down the linebackers of the Steelers, which will open up the 2nd half running game for BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Look for Patriots to double team Mike Wallace and play a 3-4 defense putting extra pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. A huge key to smart gambling is researching the game your betting on.
Buffalo Bills will beat Washington Redskins not sure about covering the -6 spread but coming off a bye week, I think you’re going to see an energized Fred Jackson, and Bills Defense. Redskins lost Tim Hightower for the season, and Santana Moss and London Fletcher are both doubtful for this game and John Beck will be starting his 2nd game this year. Buffalo defense seems weak being ranked 30th in both passing and rushing yards, yet Redskins don’t average higher on Offense in either category. Like the under on 46 also.
Really like Vikings +3 and the under 47, Vikings defense should shut down the Panthers and Cam Newton and the Vikings will be running Adrian Peterson look for this game clock to keep running all game making a fast game. Look for Jarred Allen to have a big game along with AP.
Buffalo Bills Moneyline -270
New England Patriots -3 -110 ML -145
San Diego Chargers ML -200