PATS_JETS

BIG GAMES!!!

Big games this week in the NFL, Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots vs New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints and don’t forget our Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos. This weekend is packed with some great sports between Boxing, UFC, College Football and the NFL hope everyone thanked our veterans yesterday. Well the game I am ready to see again is the Bears vs Lions, The Bears proved to me and all the other NFL analyst that they was for real as they beat up on the Eagles last Monday night. The offensive line looks to be temporarily fixed, but the front four of Detroit will be a great test for them once again. Last matchup the Lions dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Personally I like the Bears coming off the huge win and at home, but would suggest staying away this big game. Another big game is Steelers vs Bengals. Bengals are a quiet 6-2, with their offense ranked 21st in both rushing and passing they should have a problem against the Steelers defense. I would think the Steelers show the young Bengals who the top forces in the AFC North is this week.  New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons, this is my personal favorite game of the week. Falcons are on a 3 game win streak and looking to take a share of the lead in the NFC South. Yet another big game that I would stay away from.

Betting big games is sometimes the hardest thing to bet. I bet the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in one of NFL’s biggest rivalries vs the Baltimore Ravens. I bet the line at -3 Steelers, being the home team I liked them to beat a Ravens team who lost to the Jaguars and had a last minute comeback to beat the Arizona Cardinals. I was counting my money when there was only 2 min left in the game, but it was a BIG GAME!! Baltimore showed the NFL world that they was tired of losing to the Steelers and went on a 92 yard drive to win the game. Betting the big games is generally a 50% coin flip never take a line more than -3 in a big game or it you might want to lean toward taking points, remember if you see the home team is -3 then the game is exactly even, home field gets automatic -3.

Trap Bets do exist big games. Example was last week Eagles -7 1/2 seemed easy everyone was betting the Eagles including me, or the Chargers game on Thursday -71/2. A line that looks easy is a bad thing??!! 3 1/2 -4 -5  These are numbers that seem so easy yet can never seem to cover. A great example is the Kansas City Chiefs last week started -4 and moved to -5 so everyone was betting the Chiefs cause -4 looked so good. Being Chiefs fans we all knew that the Chiefs could easily lose to the Dolphins. The worst numbers you could get is -7 1/2 , 10 1/2, 14 1/2 That half point is so HUGE!! in a big game you often will see that 1/2 point there to help the book adjust back an forth to 3 then 3 1/2 to keep everyone betting both sides. So make sure you are on the right side, easier said then done. If your a parlay guy then you need to focus on 1/2 points and stay away from them, nothing worse then losing to a half point.

Research all your bets!! Research the big games before you flip your coin and choose a team.  You should know the status of all the players on the teams your betting on, how the teams are at home or on the road. How the teams match-up on defense and offense, look at key match-ups between wide receivers and corner backs. This is one thing great about fantasy football, it can really help a person learn more about individual players that could effect the outcome of the game. The most common thing a gambler does, is bet off instinct and not facts. The lines are made off facts, they adjust according to who is hurt and what people are betting. So take a few extra minutes to research your games before you make your bets.

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Week 10 Picks

Baltimore -6 1/2

Steelers ML

Patriots ML

Steelers Vs Bengals Over 41

Eagles Vs Cardinals Under 46.5

2 Comments Say Something
  • The 1/2 point is killer, great point. What college games do you like this week?

  • Stanford -3 Arizona -10 vs Colorado, Texas over Missouri. I don’t really follow and bet college that much. its kinda unpredictable unless 2 top 25 teams are playing. I think the Under on the Stanford game might be good too cause Stanford is going to try to run the ball and keep it out of Oregon’s hands line is 69.5. Final will be like 35-28

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