Todd Bouman, Jacksonville Jaguars

Betting the AFC West: Week 7 Parlay

If you knew nothing about parlay bets until you first read this column in week 4, you may have thought to yourself at first, “how hard can it be to pick 3 or 4 games against the spread?”

If you bet along with me in week 4, we profited $100 on our $20 bet, but we gave back $20 in week 5 when Baltimore blew out Denver and gave away $20 more in week 6 when Houston and Oakland failed to cover by a combined 1 1/2 points.

Up $60, we head into week 7…

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (Over/Under 48 1/2)

As last week, the AFC West has a matchup (or two) where I really do not like either the favorite or the underdog (San Diego Chargers -2). I don’t like the  New England Patriots nearly as much without Randy Moss and San Diego seems to keep finding a way to lose. That being said, the over/under isn’t much better, but makes me feel a little more comfortable when placing a bet on this game. New England is averaging 30.8 points per game and San Diego is averaging 26.2. Even touchdown less in this game will cover the over.

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    I am taking over 48 1/2 points scored

    If you are curious, 75% of bettors are taking New England +2

    Pick: Over 48 1/2 points scored

    Oakland Raiders (+7 1/2) at Denver Broncos (-7 1/2)

    The Oakland Raiders failed to cover the +7 point spread last week, losing by 8… Sad story. I am going back to the Raiders in week 7. With no rushing game, averaging 2.7 yards per carry, the Denver Broncos are going to the air 62% of the time. On the flip side, the Raiders are the 8th best in the NFL against the pass, allowing only 196.8 passing yards per game.

    I am taking the Broncos to win by 7

    62% of bettors agree with me…

    Pick: Raiders getting 7 1/2 points

    Jacksonville Jaguars  at Kansas City Chiefs (Over/Under 37 1/2)

    I loved this game when it opened at Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 on Monday afternoon. QB David Garrard and backup Trent Edwards then got injured on Monday Night Football and the line jumped momentarily to Chiefs -10. The game was then completely pulled off the board, and finally re-opened Friday afternoon at Chiefs -9.

    I don’t love it anymore. -9 is a pretty big number… A two score game, and if you’re an NFL fan, you know the majority of NFL games are decided by less than 7 points.

    I do however, like the 37 1/2 over/under. The Chiefs finally found a balanced offense in week 6 at Houston and, no matter who is at QB for the Jaguars, I don’t see them being completely shut down as they were by the Titans in week 6. Even with two games where the Jags have scored only 3 points, they still average 18.3 points per game.

    I’m sticking to my prediction from earlier in the week, over 37 1/2 points scored

    If you are curious, 81% of bettors are taking Kansas City -9

    Pick: Over 37 1/2 points scored

    Parlay Recap

    $20 bet wins $120

    Patriots/Chargers over 48 12, Raiders +7 1/2, Jaguars/Chiefs over 37 1/2

    Best of luck!

    2 Comments Say Something
    • I am picking the same. Those bets seem secure. Perhaps the Raiders can even pull off a win in Denver

    • Results:
      Lost 3 team parlay…

      Patriots/Chargers over 48 1/2, incorrect (43 points scored)
      Raiders +7 1/2, correct
      Jaguars/Chiefs over 37 1/2, correct

      I am REALLY pissed off about the false start by the Chargers which made the game tying field goal attempt 50 yards instead of 45 yards! Made FG adds 3, then any overtime score except a safety wins the parlay… Again, so close, yet so far!

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