Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

AFC West Parlay: Week 11

Week 11 is the first of the season where the AFC West is lead by a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Oakland Raiders are better than they were in 2009, as many expected.

The San Diego Chargers are beginning to make their annual late season run, with QB Philip Rivers on pace (5234 yards) to surpass Dan Marino‘s single season passing record of 5084 yards.

With only one AFC West game in week 10, we skipped the AFC West parlay, but for fun, I gave you the Chiefs to cover the spread against the Denver Broncos and the over 43 points in the weekly 5 Reasons column. If you placed a mini-parlay with those recommendations… You lost… Damn Chiefs!

Starting fresh in week 11… Literally. We have spent all of our winnings. Here’s to new beginnings!

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Oakland is hot! Winning their last 3 games, this Oakland team may be for real. With a BYE week to prepare for a Steelers team who simply looked lost in week 10 against the New England Patriots, I think the 7 point spread in favor of the Steelers is bloated.

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    Raiders are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 games and the Steelers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

    I am taking the Steelers to win by 3, although I think the Raiders could easily win.

    Only 42% of bettors agree with me, but I think that’s only because of the Sttelers name…

    Pick: Raiders getting 3 points

    Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (over/under 50)

    If you’ve been following this column, you know that I don’t like big point spreads very much… The same is true here. With the Chargers being favored by 9.5 points, I am staying away from the spread on this game.

    Instead, I am leaning towards the over/under of 50. The Chargers and Broncos combine for an average of 49 points per game, but it seems as Phillip Rivers can throw for 300 yards and 2-3 TDs with his eyes closed each game… No matter who his weapons are. The bye week in week 9 seemed to get the Denver passing game back on track as they dropped 49 on the Chiefs in week 10.

    I am taking over 50 points scored.

    58% of bettors are taking the Broncos to cover the 9.5 point spread… That’s good for the over!

    Pick: Over 50 points scored

    Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (over/under 44)

    The Chiefs… Blah! Two disgusting losses in the last two weeks. One close, one not.

    I do not like the 7.5 spread in favor of the Chiefs in this game. I predicted the Chiefs to win by 7 in the weekly 5 Reasons article, but .5 points difference isn’t enough to give me confidence to take Arizona to cover the spread.

    I do, however, like the O/U of 44. Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games overall and over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games overall.

    I am taking over 44 points scored.

    64% of bettors are taking the Chiefs to cover the 7.5 point spread…

    Pick: Over 44 points scored

    Parlay Recap

    $20 bet wins $120

    Raiders +7, Chargers/Broncos over 50, Cardinals/Chiefs over 44

    Is this the week?

    Let me know your thoughts!
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