Arian Foster, Melvin Bullitt

5 Players to Stay Away from in Your Fantasy Draft

Football season is getting closer and closer. This means fantasy football season is also getting closer and closer… And is even more important to some fans, not this fan, but some.

Many leagues have already drafted for the 2011 season, but if you’ve been around the game for awhile and your league has been together for any extended period of time, chances are you know better than to draft at the beginning of pre-season… And had to learn the lesson the hard way.

Not to steal any thunder away from Chiefs Command resident Fantasy Football Guru, Brandon Prewitt, but here are five guys I am staying away from in 2011…

NOTE – Now, some of these guys may find their way onto my roster, but not unless I get them at a discount.

Arian Foster

Currently #1 on the MyFantasyLeague.com average draft position (ADP) list, Arian Foster was one of my sleeper picks in 2010 following rookie RB Ben Tate’s season ending injury in the pre-season. The Houston Texans drafted Tate in the 2nd round to be the starter. If nothing else, Foster will lose a lot of his work load to Tate in 2011… Especially, if Tate performs well.

Foster should put up solid numbers again in 2011, but don’t expect him to live up to the #1 overall fantasy pick.

Michael Vick

I absolutely LOVE fantasy owners who watch ESPN day and night, then think they can fare well in their fantasy draft! ESPN LOVES to sensationalize ANYTHING they can and many times, it is blatantly obvious (to most people) the opinions given are NOT actual opinions, yet are topics the network as a whole wants to be pushed to the public.

While flipping through the TV the other day, one of the jackasses (I forget who, Matthew Berry, I think) was arguing that Michael Vick is worthy of the #1 overall pick in fantasy football in 2011. Vick makes my list simply because ESPN is so popular and so many people WILL follow that advice.

No doubt, Michael Vick has made a fantastic come-back in the NFL, and he may actually be an even better fantasy QB than ever, but be careful. Vick has always been injury prone due to his all-out style of play… and he isn’t getting any younger. In the 5th round, Vick may be a steal. In the 1st, he… Errrr… You… are the laughing stock.

Dwayne Bowe

2010 may have been the turning point in for Dwayne Bowe in his NFL career and he had the best seven game stretch for a WR not named Jerry Rice in NFL history, but most of Bowe’s fantasy numbers also came in that stretch as well. If you had him on your roster in 2010, needing a win in week 13 to make the playoffs, Bowe gave you zero catches… Honestly, I don’t even remember if he played. Then in weeks 14 and 15, he gave you 3 catches for 56 yards combined.

I like consistency in my WRs. Big games are great, but I’ll take consistent players who also put up big games. Let someone else grab Bowe too early… You be the guy yelling, “REACH!!!” in the background.

Hakeem Nicks

I’ve seen many pre-season lists that have Hakeem Nicks as a top-3 fantasy WR in 2011. It leaves me scratching my head. He had a great season in 2010, Steve Smith has left town, Eli Manning is a solid, but not fantastic QB… I still have a hard time figuring out how he is better than other guys who have put up the numbers year in and year out…

Given the MFL ADP, wait or trade down and grab Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd or Marques Colston instead.

Peyton Manning

Did you really think Peyton Manning was going to break Brett Favre’s “Iron Man” record for consecutive games started int he NFL? I didn’t. In fact, I am shocked the Indianapolis Colts gave Manning a huge contract following neck surgery. The Colts signing of Kerry Collins to backup Manning, tells a lot about his recovery, a recovery which has already taken twice as long as initial reports.

Manning isn’t a kid anymore and I’m not taking the chance he could miss one or many games for my fantasy team this season.

All being said, I would easily take Manning if he falls into the mid-rounds, but let someone else take a early-round chance. Instead, grad up Aaron Rodgers or Phillip Rivers… Both of which may be better fantasy options, anyway.

A little insight…

Now that I have given you a little insight into my 2011 fantasy strategy, who do you like/dislike in 2011? And why, of course.

2 Comments Say Something
  • I’m tryin to find the value and I’m thinkin Greg Jennings at WR because of the system. Jamaal Charles depending on the opponent because Todd Haley likes Thomas Jones in the red zone after Charles did all the work to get them there.

    I think Steve Breaston and Mike Willians (TB) will be a good late round pick as well.

    I’d stay away from Adrian Peterson. The vikes will lean on him even more b/c their big play guy Sidney Rice is now in Seattle. He might not be as productive.

  • Ya, I’m up in the air about Charles as well (fantasy-wise only).

    Thomas Jones obviously will take away carries, but L’Ron McClain will also take away short yardage/ goal line carries as well.

    Gotta love that yards per carry though… and it sounds as if they are going to use him even more in the passing game, so in a PPR league, his value could actually go up even more.

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